March 28, 2019

You know nothing, Jon Snow.

For fans hoping to glean some insight into possible outcomes of the eighth and final season of the bloody series, science is at your service. A group of Australian researchers analyzed the existing 67 episodes of the series to see which of the characters are most likely to face death next, according to a study in the journal, Injury Epidemiology.

Each character was categorized according to sex and social status—either “highborn” or “lowborn” in the show’s vernacular. They also considered the character’s occupation—either “silk collar” jobs, like merchant or clergyman, or “boiled leather collar” jobs, like blacksmith or farmer—as well as religious affiliation, and allegiance. The researchers then calculated how long each character lived after being introduced to viewers—the shortest stint was 11 seconds. Lastly, they assigned an alphanumeric death code for each based on the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, as well as noting the location and time of each death.

According to their analysis, by the end of season seven, 56.4 percent or 186 of all the important characters had died, with 73.7 percent of those deaths caused by injuries. Head and neck wounds, including decapitations, topped the list. Only two natural deaths were depicted in the show. Lowborn men were the most likely to meet a violent end while highborn women, on the other hand, seemed to survive the longest.

Study co-author Reidar Lystad, an injury epidemiologist at the Australian Institute of Health Innovation, tells Taylor Pittman at The Huffington Post that there are two independent factors that seemed to up the chances a character will survive. The first is their prominence. The more screen time they get and the more entwined with the main thrust of the story, the longer they survive. Also, changing allegiances—moving from one house to another or to another institution, like the Night’s Watch, seemed to improve chances for making it from one season to the next.

What that means in practical terms is that the Stark sisters seem to have the highest chances of surviving until the end, since they are highborn women who have changed allegiances (willingly or not), with Arya joining the Faceless Men and Sansa moving from House Stark to House Baratheon to House Lannister to House Bolton and back to House Stark.

Lystad also says the chances for Tyrion Lannister and Jon Snow surviving are also almost as high though they are highborn males.